The table
| # | Team | W-L | PF | PA | Playoffs | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CTE DeniersESPN | 5-2 | 850.4 | 702.4 | — | +0.9 |
| 2 | P RIVERS NAS NASESPN | 5-2 | 800.6 | 796.1 | — | +1.3 |
| 3 | The PenguinsESPN | 4-3 | 836.9 | 754.4 | — | +0.1 |
| 4 | Raleigh Silly NanniesESPN | 4-3 | 833.9 | 887.0 | — | +0.4 |
| 5 | The Penthouse Panda BearESPN | 4-3 | 818.5 | 844.2 | — | +0.2 |
| 6 | Brightleaf YuppiesESPN | 4-3 | 808.3 | 819.1 | — | +0.2 |
| 7 | Austin BubbsESPN | 3-4 | 866.3 | 843.2 | — | -1.6 |
| 8 | Your Worst NightmaresESPN | 3-4 | 786.2 | 789.3 | — | +0.3 |
| 9 | Taco MacArthurESPN | 2-5 | 641.4 | 748.1 | — | +0.3 |
| 10 | Run and HideESPN | 1-6 | 844.5 | 903.1 | — | -2.3 |
The blue line is the playoff cut (top 6 of 10). Luck is wins above or below what your weekly scores earned against the whole league.
Playoff outlook
After week 7 · simulations of the remaining schedule under the league’s real tiebreak rules.
What these numbers assume — and how well they’ve held up
Each remaining game is simulated by drawing both teams’ scores from a normal distribution fitted to their own weeks this season, then re-seeding on the league’s real rule (win %, ties broken by total points).
Each team’s average is pulled toward the league average before simulating. The raw model was checked against seven real seasons and was measurably overconfident — teams it gave a 30% chance made the playoffs 46% of the time. Shrinking the means cut the average error from 4.9 points to 0.8.
What it ignores: injuries, bye weeks, trades, waiver pickups, and hot streaks. Weeks are drawn independently. Treat a 95% as “very likely”, not a promise.
Weekly recaps
The newest settled week stays on the front page. Earlier weeks remain here as the season book fills in.